Thomas
DeChastelain
Memorial Archives

Market Analysis Archives 2004


Dec 30, 2004 -- China's Steel Binge and Purge

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 30, 2004 -- Short and long term charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 27, 2004 -- If I was forced to commit myself to a "fearless forecast" I would have to say that I am expecting short term trends to reverse sometime in the new year

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 21, 2004 -- TH.TO AND ENE. TO

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 19, 2004 -- I would rather wait for certain indicators to get back into bullish alignment before reentering

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 14, 2004 -- The rand continues to display supernatural strength.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 12, 2004 -- Is the next down-leg about to start?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 11, 2004 -- I feel pretty comfortable being in cash. I think it is too early to get into bottom picking contrarian mode - there is still too much downside potential if the USD decides to keep climbing

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 8, 2004 -- Daily, weekly and monthly charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 7, 2004 -- What defines strength?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 6, 2004 -- Looks short-term toppy to me

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 5, 2004 -- Carl Swenlin, president of DecisionPoint.com has provided some charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 5, 2004 -- It is a hard trade for contrarians but the moral of the story is that triple top breakouts are significant technical events.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 4, 2004 -- Gold equity under performance accelerates.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 2, 2004 -- The real motivation was the crushing in gold stocks.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 30, 2004 -- Just keeping tabs

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 28, 2004 -- What we have here is a case of strongly trending price action versus overbought technical condition.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 23, 2004 -- Daily, weekly and Monthly charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 21, 2004 -- Bullion had a gang buster week. Not only did it confirm a triple top break-out, it is well on track to breaking out of a multi-decade trading channel.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 18, 2004 -- A false break-out?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 13, 2004 -- An excellent week for the gold sector.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 7, 2004 -- The post election issue.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 31, 2004 -- The pre-election issue.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 27, 2004 -- Bonds and Oil

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 25, 2004 -- Just some stock charts of a few of the stocks I have traded and am watching.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 25, 2004 -- So when I do back of the envelope analysis I am thinking bullion looks strong, bonds look to continue defying gravity , but paper is either under performing (gold shares) or weak (general markets)

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 24, 2004 -- I think you will find that the following charts paint a fascinating market picture

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 20, 2004 -- Nobody is expecting the dollar to go up. Ergo there is a good chance that it will.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 10, 2004 -- Given that the large specs are holding near record high amounts of gold this is not a place to get complacent

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 7, 2004 -- It has been nice, but it is time to take profits

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 3, 2004 -- The trend remains up on all time-frames but the condition has now become overbought. I expect a pull-back to start in the very near future

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 1, 2004 -- from a purely TA perspective a bearish development for the greenback

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 29, 2004 -- USD, XJY and Euro are all at, or near, the proverbial "critical juncture".

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 28, 2004 -- When people can't imagine how a market can do anything but go up... it usually goes down

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 26, 2004 -- More rate hikes are coming.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 26, 2004 -- On the HUI the key number is 210 which is critical support from an EWA viewpoint. From a more traditional perspective the 200dma becomes the key support metric to watch.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 24, 2004 -- Be very careful what you wish for?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 23, 2004 -- The trend line has not yet been broken.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 22, 2004 -- The bullish spin is that the XEU is "consolidating" gains.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 21, 2004 -- Looks like a wave 3 getting underway.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 18, 2004 -- Although this leg appears impulsive it is not clear to me whether this would be the first impulsive leg of a major move up...or a final C wave to finish off a counter trend rally.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 18, 2004 -- Outside of the usual HUI.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 16, 2004 -- Charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 16, 2004 -- Big time resistance at 90 still looms large.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 15, 2004 -- I, for one, cannot convince myself that it is time to make large bets with an intention to hold.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 14, 2004 -- Bullish on natural gas as long as key support on weekly chart is held.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 12, 2004 -- SPX/VIX ratio charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 12, 2004 -- A more minimalist view

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 10, 2004 -- Long and short term views of China and Japan

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 6, 2004 -- I keep coming across more signs that it may be time to loosen purse strings.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 5, 2004 -- The last week saw lots of "jostling for position" but with no one yet getting clear advantage.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 31, 2004 -- If the US was as efficient as Europe their oil import needs would be reduced to zero.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 28, 2004 -- When you look at the gold/ currency world it is amazing to how many indices show convergence of 50 day and 200 day moving averages. Conventional wisdom dictate that such convergence usually precede strong IT moves in one direction or the other.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 26, 2004 -- A good chart to keep track of to see which is capturing the market's heart.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 25, 2004 -- Until 90 is broken with authority nothing is settled.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 25, 2004 -- All in all it looks like it is in a bear flag formation.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 21, 2004 -- The curmudgeon's view.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 16, 2004 -- 1990 marked the top of an equity and real estate bubble of Homeric proportions.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 13, 2004 -- The fact that there has been no real fear displayed yet in the market makes it ripe for further ugliness.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 1, 2004 -- The number of Nasdaq issues trading above their 200dma has been dropping sharply. Why is this development not being reflected in the larger index?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 31, 2004 -- My interpretation of the market remains little changed from last week. Charts are updated for perusal

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 29, 2004 -- A peek at some chart patterns and how they might differ in different price scales.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 28, 2004 -- Trend lines change depending on which you use

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 27, 2004 -- In technical analysis, as in all things, there are levels upon levels, and Mr. Iossif resides near the very top.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 27, 2004 -- I am not excited over the stainability of this move up.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 25, 2004 -- A potpourri of price charts...in alphabetical order

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 24, 2004 -- From a technical perspective, one can argue, and I will, that the sector is in its most vulnerable condition since the start of the secular gold rally.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 21, 2004 -- Stochastic cycle study says yes

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 19, 2004 -- Charts are reaching critical junctures that could very well determine what is going to happen going forward into the elections. A look at the Nas, HUI and a spec silver stock

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 17, 2004 -- However one can also say that the index remain "coiled" under important resistance and the negative bets that caused the index to fade Friday afternoon will be the catalyst to propel the index towards a test of its 200dma.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 12, 2004 -- A very interesting analysis put by Sol Palha.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 10, 2004 -- We are entering technical areas where people's convictions will start to be tested more rigourously.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 9, 2004 -- Just looking for patterns

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 7, 2004 -- Have you heard many pundits/analysts waxing bullish on the dollar? Me neither and quite frankly I'm feeling a little lonely.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 7, 2004 -- Dow Jones Precious Metals Index

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 6, 2004 -- the intent is to find a way of looking at charts objectively without the baggage of pre-conceived notions.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 4, 2004 -- Don't count on a rising market going into November

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 3, 2004 -- A variety of bullion, index and ratio charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 29, 2004 -- Stay in cash.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 28, 2004 -- All together it spells doom for commodities

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 26, 2004 -- Price Action.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 22, 2004 -- Short-Term Chart.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 21, 2004 -- Buy of the century? Or an index rolling over. It is your money. Choose wisely.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 20, 2004 -- With the Fed meeting coming, the near term price action promises to be exciting, so let us look at the charts to make sure we have our bearings going in.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 11, 2004 -- As well as a detailed look at the gold charts, I want to display a number of charts looking at outside elements; elements that can have an influence on gold prices. Many of these elements are at critical junctures...

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 9, 2004 -- Will the USD get back above it's channel break-down point?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 6, 2004 -- There is no way to disguise this. The bulls are going to have to be very committed to grind through the morass of technical resistance.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 6, 2004 -- I have been experimenting with the use of inverse ratio charts as a means to more objectively analyze charts.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 5, 2004 -- If the dollar does not start moving up with some vigour, and the momentum indicators remain in oversold levels, it will be an indication the dollar bear is indeed back.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 4, 2004 -- The technical terrain is very simple. The bulls have to get a weekly close over 200. Period. End of story.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 2, 2004 -- No denying it - the greenback has been getting some traction.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 1, 2004 -- If there is another leg up, then one can only surmise that one would be presented with another shorting opportunity of the decade.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 30, 2004 -- Oversold readings have been unwound, and for the most part have plenty of fuel to support bullish action

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 29, 2004 -- Exciting stuff.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 29, 2004 -- However even a bounce here does little good unless it STRONGLY gets back above its 200dma

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 26, 2004 -- Short term trading only.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 24, 2004 -- CFTC Response To Allegations of Silver Market Manipulations

An article recommended by Lenard Kaplan in his latest gold analysis which is available at 321gold.com

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 22, 2004 -- The oversold nature of the sector, as well the development of divergences on the daily scale give strong arguments that this bull action will have some legs.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 22, 2004 -- Index Charts and Ratios.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 21, 2004 -- The technical terrain is very similar to that facing the gold sector not so long ago

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 21, 2004 -- Price Action Update.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 20, 2004 -- From a technical stand-point the counter-trend rally in the USD remains intact.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 10, 2004 -- Price Action Update.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 8, 2004 -- If general equities hold in there then golds must surely be nearing a point where a tradeable bottom is coming?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 7, 2004 -- Daily momentum indicators are near useless for all but the shortest term trades.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 2, 2004 -- This is going to be a big week for gold.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 1, 2004 -- Gas Index Chart.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 30, 2004 -- Continued weakness however not only has negative connotations towards gold stocks, but also says that the reinflation game is not going according to plan.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 28, 2004 -- China's public declarations to get growth rates under a tighter rain are overhangs gold did not have to contend with at past corrections.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 25, 2004 -- Trend-line support and oversold daily readings may allow for a bounce, but at this stage I would look at this as a short term trading opportunity only.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 24, 2004 -- The gold permabulls and prechtorian gold permabears, as always, are singing their same tunes.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 21, 2004 -- Sold my position for a minor loss. My portfolio is 100% cash. I smell deflation ahead. Bad times are coming.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 15, 2004 -- Sold my CLL last morning at .91. Nothing company or chart specific. Indeed I think it is a good stock to buy. Just taking gains as they were available...and a voice in my head telling me to go to cash....something about everything going down but the greenback.

Still holding the SSB as the charts and market depth show it is a good buy here..but it is looking more and more that it will need something "out of the blue" to kick start any sustained buying.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 14, 2004 -- The US is spending money like no tomorrow.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 13, 2004 -- Caution is warranted.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 13, 2004 -- An article that I think all should read and consider.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 10, 2004 -- Log vs Linear.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 5, 2004 -- Gold Stock Predictions.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 5, 2004 -- We few, we happy few...

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 5, 2004 -- On these kind of trades you either nail the bottom or you get out.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 4, 2004 -- Call me cynical but I was not surprised about the positive jobs report.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 31, 2004 -- My position is 100% cash.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 30, 2004 -- I remain IT bearish.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 29, 2004 -- More baggage than CP ships.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 28, 2004 -- A good stock to keep track of.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 26, 2004 -- Things that make you go "hmmmm".

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 24, 2004 -- You want to know the gold is there.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 22, 2004 -- 100% cash seems quite comfortable.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 21, 2004 -- Winds are starting to blow in gold's face.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 20, 2004 -- Chart

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 20, 2004 -- The people who made money on this last upturn required exquisite timing.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 18, 2004 -- Looking at this a second time.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 16, 2004 -- Currency charts.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 15, 2004 -- Fear is entering the market.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 15, 2004 -- Charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 14, 2004 -- Breaking the trend-line will be my cue to leave.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 14, 2004 -- I tend to remain short-term bearish.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 10, 2004 -- I just have the feeling the fix is in.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 7, 2004 -- Chart looks fine but ...

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 6, 2004 -- Being mostly in cash I have been hoping for a major retrace.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 5, 2004 -- The retest of the 88 level becomes crucial.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 4, 2004 -- Charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 2, 2004 -- Of more interest is the potential impact on gold stocks.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 2, 2004 -- Well the out of the sky news actually came.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 1, 2004 -- I think the stock is over done.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 1, 2004 -- Looks promising.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 29, 2004 -- Charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 29, 2004 -- There are two theories out there dealing with USD.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 29, 2004 -- Big drop coming?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 27, 2004 -- The bears have to become a bit more frightened.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 27, 2004 -- Demographics is the real driver in housing.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 26, 2004 -- Chart

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 26, 2004 -- Futures

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 25, 2004 -- There are a lot of dogs in the gold sector. This is not one of them.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 25, 2004 -- All the makings for a counter trend rally of strength are in place.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 24, 2004 -- Chart

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 23, 2004 -- Chart

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 21, 2004 -- All the makings for an IT bottom are in place.

-- Thomas DeChastelain