Thomas
DeChastelain
Memorial Archives

Market Analysis Archives 2005


Dec 30, 2005 -- I am still of the mind that the gold sector has to reload technically before really taking off.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 28, 2005 -- This is a comprehensive (33 page report) view of the global financial situation. The author is Don Coxe, who works for the Bank of Montreal, and should be well known to any investors interested in precious metals and energy.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 24, 2005 -- If you are reading this, and doing other market reading over the Holiday Season, then that can only mean one thing...you are a keener. I salute you.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 16, 2005 -- Just the charts including a seasonal chart.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 15, 2005 -- Israel readies forces for strike on nuclear Iran

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 14, 2005 -- Short term buy.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 14, 2005 -- No real confirmation yet that the gold sector has topped

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 12, 2005 -- More toast

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 12, 2005 -- HUI has a bad bad day.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 10, 2005 -- Some scary thoughts about "Helicopter Ben's" plans for us all.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Dec 2, 2005 -- I am still waiting for a similar development in bullion's COT structure. Over the past few years bullion COT has frequently gone from an optimum sell range to an optimum buy with only minor retracements in actual price.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 28, 2005 -- The 15000 level beckons as multi-decade resistance is tested.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 26, 2005 -- Daily, weekly charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 26, 2005 -- Just the charts. No commentary this week.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 22, 2005 -- Some compelling charts, and maybe a little rattling of the cage bars.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 19, 2005 -- ..if the HUI breaks out then the plan is to put on the nose plugs and rubber gloves and buy back in.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 13, 2005 -- On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate

-- Federal Reserve


Nov 12, 2005 -- There is no basic change to my thoughts of last week. Gold was due for an up week, but I am not convinced that something "big" is happening.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 12, 2005 -- Just the charts. No commentary.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 10, 2005 -- analysis of how the new gold ETF's have changed the interpretation metric of Premium/discount values for the Central Fund of Canada

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 4, 2005 -- I remain on the sidelines and am waiting to see the gold sector enter a more bullish configuration.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Nov 1, 2005 -- HUI:XAU ratio has deteriorated

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 31, 2005 -- Things are moving into good technical buy territory.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 30, 2005 -- Watch and shoot

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 21, 2005 -- The HUI/Gold ratio break-down is the key technical event.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 21, 2005 -- Just a personal chart

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 21, 2005 -- My thought is that the sector is going into a long (12 months plus) consolidation which will take the form of a triangle. The lows of this correction should be at hand within the first month or two

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 19, 2005 -- HUI/Gold Ratio slips under some important support metrics

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 15, 2005 -- The question remains...Is this the start of a major upleg or the top of a counter trend rally?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 12, 2005 -- An in depth look at Connacher Oil, a Canadian junior oil sands play with a lot of big big irons in the fire

-- Andy Gustajtis


Oct 9, 2005 -- An addendum to a "A Look at Oil", various intelligence notes, and anyone investing in South American resource companies

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 7, 2005 -- Be vigilant.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 6, 2005 -- With Iran squarely in the sights of US and British rhetoric I cannot see the risk premium being taken off any time soon

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Oct 6, 2005 -- Looks like some retesting.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 30, 2005 -- It is not that the sector can't keep going up but the risk premium is a little high, at least from an "indexing" point of view.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 28, 2005 -- Notice that the XAU rallied up to its previous highs, which represents a 45% advance from its May lows. Since October of 2000, every time the XAU has rallied between 45% and 50%, we have gotten a pullback. In the absence of any exogenous event, we don't see any reason why this time would be any different.

-- Ike Iossif (Agean Capital)


Sep 26, 2005 -- The cream of the US Army is in Iraq right now.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 23, 2005 -- watching the evacuation out of Houston really impressed upon me the necessity of avoiding being part of a herd rushing to an exit.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 17, 2005 -- Strong momentum has brought things to overbought territory. Right now I am expecting any retracement to have a corrective nature.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 16, 2005 -- Price action is tremendous

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 16, 2005 -- In the case of General Motors for example, 80% of its 2004 earnings came from GMAC, its financial division. GMAC doesn't

-- Sprott Asset Management


Sep 15, 2005 -- A HUGE bullish technical event.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 13, 2005 -- Sold on SRI.V ho-hum drill results, holding CLL.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 10, 2005 -- The sector had another constructive week.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 5, 2005 -- I think gold and oil are necessary stocks to hold if you want to protect yourself from being priced into the stone age.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 30, 2005 -- Right now I think the only thing that can really put a dent in the oil bull, is a severe dent on the demand side in the form of a global recession.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 29, 2005 -- Some ratios and a look at silver

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 27, 2005 -- The really big fly in the ointment remains the COT structure which has not improved one iota and remains at historically bearish levels.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 13, 2005 -- Bullion is reaching an overbought condition on the daily time scale. Worse the COT data is extremely bearish

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 7, 2005 -- Leaning towards the "do" in "do or die".

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 3, 2005 -- Breaks key resistance metrics

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 1, 2005 -- Now in the process of testing key support metrics

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 29, 2005 -- I have no real change to comments made last week

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 28, 2005 -- A long term-chart of the SPX/VXO ratio

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 22, 2005 -- I don't know which way it will break, but I know what I am going to do.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 22, 2005 -- An oil sands play for your consideration

-- David Prescott


Jul 16, 2005 -- In short, from a technical perspective the sector is in a "show me" juncture

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 14, 2005 -- padding is getting thin

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 13, 2005 -- HUI and HUI/Gold ratio

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 9, 2005 -- Looking at everything though, I think bullion will remain under pressure. I would see any break-out to be of dubious quality ..

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 5, 2005 -- All is not lost yet.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 1, 2005 -- The good, the bad, and the ugly.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 29, 2005 -- Gold is still basically off the radar if web-site statistics are any indication

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 28, 2005 -- A look at the Euro and why I think some people are misinterpreting COT data for gold.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 27, 2005 -- Stick two forks in it.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 18, 2005 -- The potential of this move simply makes it too expensive not to participate in.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 15, 2005 -- So far so good

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 14, 2005 -- Even better, my perusal of the boards shows there is no shortage of "sophisticated" traders shorting gold...The contrarian in me is smiling.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 11, 2005 -- Everything still looks good.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 9, 2005 -- Rubic Cube Stuff

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 7, 2005 -- Bearish for the dollar

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 6, 2005 -- A gold sentiment chart I haven't looked at for awhile. It definitely shows positive divergence. It also shows that one is certainly NOT buying at a gold top!

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 5, 2005 -- Now when one talks about "Wave III" type stuff one is talking about something more than a major upleg. One is talking about moves which contain inexorable energy

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 1, 2005 -- Silver sees energetic price action in the face of a strong USD

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 31, 2005 -- Something "big" may be happening

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 29, 2005 -- from a purely technical point of view this seems to be text-book circumstance to initiate dollar short positions.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 23, 2005 -- Things are looking promising.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 21, 2005 -- On the HUI I would look at the 18 and 20 ema. They have been confining the index during its recent spiral downwards

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 18, 2005 -- Just hacking around

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 14, 2005 -- The stench of deflationary forces permeated the markets last week, leaving the gold sector taking a good long hard look into the abyss

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 7, 2005 -- To sum up, this is all going to end badly; the only question is timing

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 4, 2005 -- A trade idea.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 3, 2005 -- The bold are jumping in, but bamboo spikes abound.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 15, 2005 -- Price action trumps oversold conditions.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 13, 2005 -- A "reflation" cycle is not underway.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 13, 2005 -- China Fund has broken down through some key price supports.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 13, 2005 -- Some charts for your consideration

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 9, 2005 -- If pressed right now I would say we are looking at one more up down sequence before we really can start talking about the correction ending.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 5, 2005 -- Maybe Not

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 2, 2005 -- Hey speaking of feeding tubes, what about that good old US economy?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 30, 2005 -- I consider this configuration to be bearish.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 25, 2005 -- As mentioned in mid-week commentary, there appeared to me to be the faint aroma of deflation in the air.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 24, 2005 -- A potpourri of charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 22, 2005 -- The bears are starting to sniff blood

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 20, 2005 -- Price action last week all looks corrective, so a return to these previous trends is expected.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 16, 2005 -- Is the market ready to experience an oil shock of historic proportions? Certainly the ground work is being laid.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 16, 2005 -- Bodes well for the inflation case.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 12, 2005 -- Bullion is in the same technical condition that saw the dollar rolling over. Will the same happen here?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 10, 2005 -- Just stumbled onto it myself but going through the site is like a crash course in TA...some good stuff indeed.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 10, 2005 -- Beware when large numbers are compared to small ones

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 8, 2005 -- HUI/Gold ratio looking good

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 8, 2005 -- Black comedy farce has greater implications

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 4, 2005 -- Lots of moving average and trend-line support here. The stochastics say to expect continued strength going into the week.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 28, 2005 -- A very speculative gold exploration company. They are at the low end of their historical price range.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 27, 2005 -- Just some charts to keep an eye on. Bullish means reinflation still alive. Bearish has deflationary liquidity crunch overtones

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 26, 2005 -- The HUI/Gold ratio is still within the bounds of a triangle, indeed mid-way between main support and resistance.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 23, 2005 -- While in this condition, good trading practices trump technical analysis

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 19, 2005 -- Contending with short-term price and moving average resistance.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 18, 2005 -- What would have seemed fantastical five years ago is, in my opinion, now within the realm of possibility

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 18, 2005 -- again I am on the hunt for stragglers who are showing potential of catching up. Two punts for your consideration.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 14, 2005 -- It's all about babes, cars and handguns

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 11, 2005 -- Buy and try.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 6, 2005 -- For gold to remain in a bull market now requires the herd to find religion to break out of its multi-decade channel. There is no lack of reasons for this to happen but the proof is in the pudding

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 5, 2005 -- Again the big concern is the relative under performance with the USD which is nowhere close to topping out as in times past.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 5, 2005 -- Everything looks constructive and there is nothing from a TA perspective, that I see anyways, that says recent trend are about to reverse.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 3, 2005 -- Charts are at the proverbial "interesting juncture".

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 2, 2005 -- charts on gold and some stocks

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 1, 2005 -- The message is clear. China is a cheap place to manufacture goods, but investing to produce goods for the domestic market is fraught with danger.

-- Business Telegraph


Jan 25, 2005 -- Today's price action is a bearish omen and, to me, says the time is not quite ripe for buying.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 22, 2005 -- The gold sector is in a technical condition that has led to substantial rallies. On the other hand it got to that oversold condition without the dollar doing much on its side

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 20, 2005 -- A potpourri of charts plus some stock pumping

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 14, 2005 -- Daily and Weekly Charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 12, 2005 -- Not looking too good.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 9, 2005 -- Just more notes to muddy the waters.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 9, 2005 -- A strong dollar rally would be another victory of illusion over reality. Of course potential paper losses would be no illusion.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 4, 2005 -- It is clear that the gold market is anticipating some kind of IT bottom for the USD.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 3, 2005 -- in terms of trading head-space I maintain high level of cash with up to 20% available for short-term bounce trading.

-- Thomas DeChastelain