Thomas
DeChastelain
Memorial Archives

Market Analysis Archives 2006


Sep 2, 2006 -- Just the charts for now. (Thomas was unable to complete this article)

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Sep 2, 2006 -- Just the raw charts for now. Commentary to follow. (Thomas was unable to complete this article)

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 27, 2006 -- You don't often hear me refer to Head and Shoulder patterns. I think they are most overused and abused pattern in technical analysis

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 21, 2006 -- Just a quick comment to note that the gold sector is getting off to a nice start which to me should bode well for the rest of the week. One thing I forgot to include on the weekend was the Gold Seasonal Chart.

As you can see we are at the cusp of entering what is traditionally a strong seasonal period for bullion. Now seasonality is not the end all and be all, but it is one more item that gives longs their "fair advantage".

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 20, 2006 -- It is currently looking to test it's 65 week moving average and it will do so in oversold conditions on the daily chart.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 20, 2006 -- Now I have been bullish for a long while and remain bullish but you can see that these are hardly optimum technical conditions for entry as far as sector charts go.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 20, 2006 -- I am sticking to my guns...one more leg up..but it better start happening this week.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 16, 2006 -- If the USD test old lows with no real hub-bub from the financial press then it is very much a case of look out below.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 14, 2006 -- Everything about the price action still strikes me a being bullish from a swing trader's perspective.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 13, 2006 -- Still waiting for the reserve update

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Aug 13, 2006 -- I still say one more leg up

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 30, 2006 -- I am more and more of the mind that the June lows are going to hold.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 27, 2006 -- Housing isn't going down, ergo I expect the HUI to keep going up

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 24, 2006 -- For the overnight keeners and nighthawks out there

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 23, 2006 -- Sorry but right now it looks like no charts going up this weekend. The HUI has given, at the least, some short term sell signals with the MACD cross and the bull channel breaking down. The 50% retrace level (309)is still holding. Bounce traders or those who have capital preservation as a key should have sold last week. However MACD crosses in this area are notoriously vulnerable to whip-saw. Those swing traders that can relax a bit and bought at the spike lows are not out of line to keep their stops at break-even. There is no clear set-up for new money so definitely have a stop in case you are going for the another leg up scenario. There is an amazing amount of bearishness out on the boards and that does get the contrarian spidey senses tingling. The HUI really needs to stay above 309 or the technical picture fully supports the bears.

At the same time, with all due respect to Jack Chan, whose charts I would recommend to all, but to short this market and then "go fishing" is asking to get their lunch handed to them. If you don't have the time to monitor markets then my "advice" is to be in cash. As far as the gold sector goes, that is where I am at. I still maintain my exposure to oils.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 20, 2006 -- I am looking forward to the updated reserve report

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 19, 2006 -- No chart but today the HUI touched and then bounced off 38% fib support. As well, one could argue that it has completed an a-b-c correction. If that is the case then the HUI should start heading back up forthwith. The working count on the HUI gets a big boost of confidence if it moves back over 353 this week. If it goes down below 309 ... the 50% Fib support level then the count is and was rubbish.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 16, 2006 -- Unless you are a social engineering pacifist who crumbles at the first whiff of second hand smoke...you are going to grab your pitchfork and head off to the beaches to drive the invaders away

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 16, 2006 -- That risk premium is fully justified.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 8, 2006 -- I am of the mind that equities in general have to increase in valuation in the face of at least two, if not three more quarter point rate hikes to really set the stage for a "crash".

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 8, 2006 -- The case for that? Well oil looks to be heading to new highs. High oil prices is seen as price inflation but the underlying impact of high oil is that it acts as a drain on global liquidity.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 5, 2006 -- I see a dip coming over the next few days/week before the counter-trend uptrend continues.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jul 5, 2006 -- Crude Oil has acted as expected, with one last little dip and then a surge to trend-line resistance.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 30, 2006 -- Actually I may have been off a bit on the EUB approval for Connacher...at least from a purely technical basis. Below is an excerpt of an interview with the CEO by David Pescod and printed in the June 29 edition of Stocktalk

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 29, 2006 -- Formal EUB approval is given.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 25, 2006 -- we are talking about a correction which digests the entire gold bull to date.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 25, 2006 -- The commercials continue to use every opportunity to reduce their short position exposure.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 17, 2006 -- Now in the short term things look fairly reasonable

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 17, 2006 -- I still think there is way too much bearishness, which from a trading point of view, is actually going to prevent the USD from collapsing at this time

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 17, 2006 -- If oil is going to do anything dramatic to the upside however, then it looks like it will have to be soon.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 13, 2006 -- The slaughter continues. A variety of index charts and just to pour some vinegar over the wounds, a look at my beloved Connacher.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 13, 2006 -- As I finish up a night of plastering and sanding I check to see that bullion is getting gutted yet again, now at 588. Obviously the suggested short-term trading tactic (mentioned in the weekend commentary) of looking for a small break below 600 and waiting for a move back above is no longer applicable. It will be interesting to see how gold equities hold up.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 11, 2006 -- It does seem that there is finally a light at the end of the tunnel as far as getting EUB provincial approval ...

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 10, 2006 -- Crude has shown excellent relative strength

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 10, 2006 -- A detailed look at the gold sector. In the short term it looks like bullion is certainly due for at least some kind of relief bounce. The 600 level makes for a natural swing line.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 8, 2006 -- Will a bounce help gold stocks?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 5, 2006 -- As you could probably could tell from the weekend commentary. I am not getting a warm and fuzzy about gold stocks...they may indeed churn higher but my circumstances don't really allow me right now to properly babysit bounce trades in this sector. As such I will be standing aside for now. Again this is all from a swing trader's mindset ... I certainly don't see anything out there that changes my mind that gold is still within a long term bull

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 4, 2006 -- it has been a bit over a month, and the crude price remains above the break-out level.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 3, 2006 -- But right now I don't think we are going to get a triangle

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jun 1, 2006 -- Just a study. A potpourri of charts, looking for relationships between markets, sentiment and gold if any.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 31, 2006 -- How would some people look at charts if you switched the names up?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 31, 2006 -- I found a refreshing article in contrast.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 28, 2006 -- Break-out still intact but the bears are testing hard.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 28, 2006 -- ...bullion looks it has completed an impulse and will try to rebound here.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 21, 2006 -- Various stocks within the sector. Most are still locked in consolidations. Some are more interesting from technical perspective than others. Some trading thoughts.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 21, 2006 -- I am still of the mindset that surprises will be to the upside.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 20, 2006 -- The bears are winning

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 20, 2006 -- Well the correction that would never come, finally came, and many things gold got taken out to the wood shed and gutted.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 16, 2006 -- Contrarians would buy this chart

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 15, 2006 -- In the weekly gold commentary when I refer to the moving averages I am referring to bullion's moving averages. The HUI will most likely break it's 50 dma and go back to the 200 dma in any metals correction.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 13, 2006 -- I would be very careful about putting new money in right now. From a technical picture the odds are against you.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 13, 2006 -- Of course the juice for all of this is the escalation with Iran.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 13, 2006 -- Now things are oversold, so some sideways consolidation is certainly in order, but all signs point for a major retest of lows in the near future.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


May 13, 2006 -- The index has just broken some significant trend-line support

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 30, 2006 -- Well I think crude still has some backing and filling to do.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 29, 2006 -- The bulls look to have complete control of this market.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 26, 2006 -- A wrench in the gears.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 23, 2006 -- Again in the big picture, we see clear indications of the inexorably rising prices one expects to see in a Wave III/Phase II bull market environment.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 22, 2006 -- Same old, same old. Another case of bullish price action accompanied by overbought technical conditions.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 12, 2006 -- A look at natural gas

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 8, 2006 -- The price is for all intent and purposes at trend-line resistance, so what happens over the next week or two will start giving us some clues of where the complex is at.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 8, 2006 -- It is the kind of trading you do when you don't want to get a job, but the wife wants a new washer/dryer.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 5, 2006 -- Even with a price of $50/barrel, the math becomes quite compelling.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 1, 2006 -- Price action within this sub-sector remains robust, with several offering decent entry positions from a technical basis.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 1, 2006 -- As regular readers know I have been using a large triangle as the fundamental structure for crude oil. As of yet nothing has occurred to make me change my mind. (note: long term chart fixed 3 April)

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Apr 1, 2006 -- Bullions price action looks impulsive and definitely looks to challenge the large number resistance at 600.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 27, 2006 -- The article below looks at the time relationship between gold and crude oil. In particular it looks of oil propensity to lag gold by a set number of months.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 26, 2006 -- The short term bullish case seems to be coming to pass as anticipated.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 26, 2006 -- No real change

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 21, 2006 -- I cannot believe how a country that seems to put so much stake in national power could allow itself to get into so much debt, and fritter away it's capacity to make things.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 19, 2006 -- Just a quick update on crude as well as a ratio chart which may be of interest.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 18, 2006 -- I am still of the mind that the junior oil sands sub-sector is the place to be. I know some people would argue differently, saying silver is the cutting edge. But you know, to me, there is no comparison.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 18, 2006 -- Indeed in the big, big picture I think there is a case to be made that gold and oil are maneuvering to stage major "wave III" type moves later in the year.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 14, 2006 -- Daily chart

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 12, 2006 -- Again this oil bull has very little to do with short term supplies. If it did it oil never would have broken $40. This oil bull is concerned with long term production capacity (Peak Oil) and geo-political threats to strategic level oil producers

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 11, 2006 -- If I had to commit to a prediction I would say "bounce" followed by some more downside.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 8, 2006 -- The HUI fell a bit more today giving a clear breach of the 50 dma. Sometimes though, with everyone looking at the same chart, this breach will induce a final flurry of weak hands doing some technical selling. A move back up above the 50 dma can be considered as a buy stop/signal. Just a thought ... but given the overall overbought nature of the sector I would still use tight stops on any new entries.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 6, 2006 -- The markets are such a complex phenomena that no mechanical method lasts forever. The same thing happened to me once using CPC

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 6, 2006 -- Another bearish development?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 6, 2006 -- A bearish development?

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 4, 2006 -- I am quite overweight in this sub-sector with long standing positions.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 3, 2006 -- Just the charts this weekend.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Mar 1, 2006 -- If the triangle is the underlying structure of this corrective period then one can expect a "d" wave affair that takes us to 67-68 before taking one more pause.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 25, 2006 -- A complete set of charts on all time scales plus some brief notes.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 24, 2006 -- A lot of big name gold-bugs have been calling for the demise of housing for years. Fortunately for them, they have been wrong.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 23, 2006 -- A good resistance metric to look at for those thinking of contrary buys here

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 18, 2006 -- So if a man has to chose between nanny state busy-bodies and religious war-mongering fanatics, then no small percentage of men are going to say the hell with it....let's slit some throats.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 18, 2006 -- Could we be at the start of a new impulsive leg? Daily and weekly charts.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 16, 2006 -- All the talk of natural gas shortages, and geezers freezing in their beds has not happened.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 13, 2006 -- Daily charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 12, 2006 -- As has been the case for awhile the gold sector is due for some technical consolidation

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Feb 4, 2006 -- I think that most of you who read this and other commentaries understand this and are taking what actions you can to not become an economic victim, or at least mitigate some of what may be coming down the road

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 28, 2006 -- No real change in commentary from last week.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 24, 2006 -- It is important to understand that this crisis puts all of the Middle-East oil production at risk, not just that of Iran

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 23, 2006 -- For those who have investments with properties in South America: a listing of political elections and who is who.

-- Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre


Jan 21, 2006 -- Of course no recommendations as all charts are overbought, but I think you should look at them if you are of the mind to beef up a long term energy portfolio.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 20, 2006 -- The question that many who are sitting on profitable positions is whether one should cash in and try to buy at a lower entry or just sweat out the retracement.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 18, 2006 -- I would think that Natural gas is due for at least a healthy trading bounce.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 17, 2006 -- ...another arrow in the quiver for short term bearishness.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 15, 2006 -- Given the projected cost of $1 trillion to $2 trillion, one might imagine that American taxpayers are now rolling on the floor in hysterical laughter while gasping for air

-- David Isenberg


Jan 13, 2006 -- Just the charts for this week. No real change from last week's commentary. Day trading explorers with some play money is the only activity of interest at this time.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 9, 2006 -- Just some charts, links and commentary on my favourite energy stock. (note: a link to an interview added on 11 jan)

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 8, 2006 -- With a look at the past year and some not so cheery thoughts of the future.

-- Thomas DeChastelain


Jan 7, 2006 -- Daily, weekly and monthly charts

-- Thomas DeChastelain