US Dollar Chart Study
posted Mar 21, 2006 at 12:53AM
Ever since bullion detached itself from the Dollar, I had not spent too much time keeping up. I just want to do a full slate of charts just to see where things are at.
US Dollar Daily
I am not sure I would even call this a "triangle" as much as "neutral decision pattern". How is that for new technical jargon?
From a fundamental point of view I have to go with the bears here, and say the dollar should go down. I know the economic numbers are good, and it has favourable interest rate differentials. But the US does have arguably the worst set of books in the civilized world.
I cannot believe how a country that seems to put so much stake in national power could allow itself to get into so much debt, and fritter away it's capacity to make things.
People like to say that US politics is a struggle between conservative and liberal. Trust me neither has been represented for twenty-five years. It has been running on inertia.
But in the end it is the market that will decide not I. A break-out give a measured move objective around the 38% Fib resistance area. A break down suggest an eventual retest of lows is on the way. If the latter I expect a good bounce at 85. During that bounce I would expect gold to start finishing up it's consolidation pattern.
Parralall Line Study
US Dollar Weekly
US Dollar Monthly
The whole rally of the past year and a bit, has the appearance of a weak, counter-trend bounce.