Retest Complete - The Oil Complex
posted May 13, 2006 at 04:19PM
Crude Oil Daily
Crude Oil Weekly
The price action continues to be bullish. The retest of the trend-line adding credence to the hypothesis that oil has started a "Wave III"/"phase II" type move. I do feel comfortable holding oils as the complex, or crude anyways, has a pattern of lagging gold. If that holds true then one can expect a similar pattern of inexorably rising prices.
Of course the juice for all of this is the escalation with Iran. You don't have to be a doom and gloomer to ascertain that the odds for a "peaceful resolution" are dwindling by the day. Forget techncal analysis, the ideolgoues driving the boats are as predictable as gravity.
Military action will take place. The war will be conducted stupidly. Things will turn to shit. The entire integrity of the Middle East oil supplies will come into question.
I for one have made my bets accordingly.