Thomas
DeChastelain
Memorial Archives

A Look at the US Dollar
posted Jun 17, 2006 at 02:03PM

US Dollar Daily Chart




US Weekly Chart



US Dollar COT Data

Well the dollar is up against resistance on its 50 dma.

The sense I get from the COT is that the dollar is not going to do much in either direction here. I think it will trade sideways to down as the other markets put in some form of relief rally.

I still think there is way too much bearishness, which from a trading point of view, is actually going to prevent the USD from collapsing at this time. In time it will, but not yet.

But I am definitely getting more receptive to the idea of the USD putting in a final upleg to finish off a higher order counter-trend rally. Now I am definitely a hacker when it come to EWA, but Dave Stinson is not. Here is his view of the dollar from back in May. Elliot Wave on the USD

This works well with a scenario that has been brewing in my head that is more fully fleshed out in the bullion commentary. Basically after s relief rally of indeterminate nature, we are going to get a full-blown deflation scare...i.e. the markets are going to crash.

Please note, that although the word "crash" has been used by others ad nauseum this is the first time in years that I have brought it up, at least in a serious light. But like I said I want to throw that idea around in the gold discussion.

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