Thomas
DeChastelain
Memorial Archives

A Weekend Note
posted Jul 23, 2006 at 06:28PM

Sorry but right now it looks like no charts going up this weekend. The HUI has given, at the least, some short term sell signals with the MACD cross and the bull channel breaking down. The 50% retrace level (309)is still holding. Bounce traders or those who have capital preservation as a key should have sold last week. However MACD crosses in this area are notoriously vulnerable to whip-saw. Those swing traders that can relax a bit and bought at the spike lows are not out of line to keep their stops at break-even. There is no clear set-up for new money so definitely have a stop in case you are going for the another leg up scenario. There is an amazing amount of bearishness out on the boards and that does get the contrarian spidey senses tingling. The HUI really needs to stay above 309 or the technical picture fully supports the bears.

At the same time, with all due respect to Jack Chan, whose charts I would recommnend to all, but to short this market and then "go fishing" is asking to get their lunch handed to them. If you don't have the time to monitor markets then my "advice" is to be in cash. As far as the gold sector goes, that is where I am at. I still maintain my exposure to oils.

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