The Big Three Snapshot
posted Jul 30, 2006 at 01:57AM
One could have confused CNN with "Snake Week" on the Discovery Channel. Rarely has there been such an exhibition of forked tongues.
The whole situation in the Middle East has "farce" written all over it. We are being led by children. For the most part I could look at it all as a form as black comedy. But I really blew a gasket when the Canadian PM disparaged the death of a Canadian Army officer by wondering what was he doing at a UN outpost in a warzone. Well he was doing his job.
I sent Harper a package consisting of a set of knee-pads and a stick of lip balm with a note saying these would come in handy next time he meets with the Israeli or US ambassador. I will probably get a ring from the RCMP but I don't give a fuck. As far as I am concerned he couldn't even lick the boots of that Major.
I am more and more of the mind that the June lows are going to hold. The commericials are not adding appreciably to their short postions and, (not shown), the Canadian dollar is reaching an area of strong price and momentum indicator strength. There is a strong correlation between the Canadian dollar and bullion
The bulls want to see a move above 340. I think it will happen.
Besides the Middle East, we have hurricane season coming. The record high temperatures must just be storing up energy in the Gulf of Mexico ... I suggest that there is a good chance that the Gulf Coast will look like Bangla Desh before the season is out.
One big error I made was the hypothesis that the oil sands would lead the XOI. They have not, and are indeed behaving like junior golds in that they are lagging. Many of them are in technical conditions that no way resemble the XOI. A clear breakout of the XOI would probably start to see money flows coming back to that sector. I would have some on your watchlist.
US Dollar Daily
I am still of the mind that a retest of 80 will come before any break of trend-line resistance.
Note: There will be no commentaries next weekend.