Thomas
DeChastelain
Memorial Archives

$USD Chart Update And Some Words
posted Jun 9, 2004 at 05:18PM



Well the "short-term" strength in golds was even shorter than I expected, and I am predisposed towards bearishness towards the sector.

The blast in Germany did nothing for the Euro, which suffered its own channel break-down. Then add on the militant rate hike talk from the Fed.

Will the USD get back above it's channel break-down point? It's 200dma? Over the weekend I would have said no..but the action of the gold sector is saying yes it will. From a purely technical point of view today was a gruesome day for golds.

From a trading point of view the situation does give some good lines in the sand to work from. USD gets above 200dma..stay away from golds....if it comes back down under..golds may be worth a stab - especially if we get a retest of lows with some divergences building up

Stock selection is a key as the gold/usd ratio continutes to deterioriate. Personally I would not emphaaize momentum indicators here...go for stocks that have shown high relative strength during this last bounce.

Unless ducks are really lined up I will probably remain out...short term trading may sound sexy, but it is a good way to get nickeled and dimed to death if you are not careful.

Good trading

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