posted Nov 23, 2004 at 07:46PM
The dominant chart structure is the triangle displayed on the daily chart. 10500 is the key support line. The key resistance is the trend-line which is also coincides with it 200 dma on the daily chart
The weekly chart gives credence to the thesis that this is a continuation triangle and that it should resolve to the upside.
If this happens then the monthly chart gives a channel target of close to 15000.
If the triangle breaks to the downside then we have a measured move target to the mid 8000's which in turn give the weekly and monthly charts a very bearish hue. As long as the 40 week stays above the 65...the long term trend stays with the bulls.
It seems to me that the the market is trying to decide whether the Chinese growth story is sufficiently robust enough to make up for the perceived damage being done by the collapsing USD to the exports to the US.