Bullion Charts and Commentary
posted Dec 11, 2004 at 12:13PM
Bullion Price Action
Using a moving average combination oft used by Clif Droke we see that bullion has moved into short term bear mode.
Same thing here. Moving average support has held. A bullish MACD cross would be a bullish buy signal.
220 which was strong support is now resistance. 200dma has held support.
Interesting juncture as it rest right on long term trend-line support. My first impression is to use the 200 dma as my "go - no go" line. Buy selected stocks on a sector move above the 200 dma. Very tight stop. Confirmation would come from a move above 50dma and more importantly the trend-line resistance ... a major buy signal.
TSE Gold/Gold Ratio
The USD is in short term buy mode but it is too early to make declarations of an intermediate nature.
Contrary to what I thought awhile back the move below 85 did not result in satisfying action in gold equities. It would be interesting to see what a move above that line would do. Until it happens watch and shoot.
I feel pretty comfortable being in cash with respect to the the gold sector. I think it is too early to get into bottom picking contrarian mode - there is still too much downside potential if the USD decides to keep climbing.
My overall theme is to buy only on strength. That means if the gold sector reverses on Monday I will not get the lowest price, but I avoid the risk of further weakness.
If the bull case is alive and all of this is a case of backing and filling then it shouldn't matter down the road.