Bullion Charts and Commentary
posted Apr 9, 2005 at 03:03PM
Gold Bugs Daily
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Really not too much different from last week. If pressed right now I would say we are looking at one more up down sequence before we really can start talking about the correction ending.
The down action, if that is what happens is going to break a lot of commonly looked at trend-lines, which may accelerate selling, but in the perverse logic of the market set up the basis for a true bottom.
I think it likely that the USD will at least attempt a breach of a 200dma. It gets into serious price resistance after that which should contain it. If it doesn't and the USD seems to be ploughing through this resistance then that means "something" systematic is affecting cash flows.
If the HUI/Gold ratio moves back above moving average resistance then that might be worth a stab from the long side. A break of trend-line resistance would be required to confirm one going into a longer term hold mentality.
If it doesn't then you will have to decide whether to sweat out another retest of support, or to take scalp profits and watch that test from the sidelines.