Some Odds and Sods
posted Jun 28, 2005 at 08:55PM
From a technical and sentiment point of view the Euro makes a reasonable contrariarian play here. Lots of bullish divergneces and no shortage of the "Euro is dead" in the press. Remember the the French and Dutch populace said no to the Europena Constitution, which tried to codify unrestrained globalism, aka "neoconservatism".
They did not say no to a unified currency nor a commom market.
Globalism is dead, not necessarily the Euro
All COT charts courtesy of Software North
The commericals are maintaining high short positions. The large spec are 90+ bullish...in other words they are all on the same side of the boat.
This data is mirrored by COT data for the SF and to a lesser extent, the Euro.
Below we have COT data for gold. Some analysts are making some bearish noises on the basis of this COT data.
Yes, true there was a jump in commerical short postions but it is hardly at extreme levels. Indeed compare the COT data from a year ago to the price chart below which covers the same period.
You will see that as bullion went on to make it peak highs, the COT short position was at higher levels than presently...over a longer period.
More importantly note that open interest is nowhere near the levels when bullion last peaked.
In short the COT data itself, given past historical norms, still has plenty of room to support bullion prices.